Year of the twister
Radar locations leave area at risk
By BOB BLAKE
LIMA — One month ago, the lives of the residents of Joplin, Mo., changed forever. A nearly mile-wide tornado cut a swath of catastrophic damage across the southern half of the town. The monster storm claimed 153 lives and injured more than 1,100.
The storm, a rare EF-5 with winds greater than 200 mph, is the seventh-deadliest single tornado in American history. It was an historic tornado in the midst of what is quickly becoming an historic severe weather season.
Traditionally rare, there have been five EF-5 tornadoes nationwide so far this year. Imagery from Joplin, along with other devastating tornadoes in Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Ala., has raised questions about storm vulnerability and preparedness.
“It’s not a matter of if we’re going to get a big tornado in here, it’s a matter of when,” said Michael Lewis, warning coordination meteorologist for the National Weather Service in North Webster, Ind. “It’s just a matter of time before a big tornado or a big severe thunderstorm outbreak or a heavy snow, winter storm, blizzard — it’s just a matter of time before we get impacted significantly by the weather.”
The region is no stranger to tornadoes — just ask folks in Celina, Cridersville and Van Wert. This region, however, is in a unique position geographically — located on the edge of three separate weather service forecast zones. The problem that arises from that unique position is that the weather service radars are positioned so far away they can’t always see what’s happening closer to the ground.
Troy Anderson, director of the Auglaize County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, said there are instances when storms move into the county right under the radar and spin up quick, weak tornadoes.
“We had the tornado that hit New Knoxville [in August 2006]. We had the damage and the weather service didn’t see it until they came up to do the [damage] survey,” Anderson said. “We were showing them those patterns and they said they didn’t catch that. After several events like that, I said we have to do something here.”
The key, according to weather and emergency management officials, is making sure lines of communication are open between agencies and promoting preparedness to residents and businesses.
Russ Decker, director of the Allen County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, said, “I think we cannot undervalue the importance of mitigation — things like public education, the community warning sirens, encouraging people to go out and buy weather radios.
“For tornadoes, it’s not like we can build a levee and protect the community. We have to look at public warning. In the case of Joplin, there were 24 minutes of warning time. That 24 minutes is excellent and it’s above the national average but it only helps you if the people in your community know what to do with that 24 minutes.”
A unique situation
Three separate National Weather Service offices are tasked with issuing forecasts, watches and warnings for the region, with no overlap between offices. The North Webster, Ind., office handles Allen, Putnam and Van Wert counties. The Wilmington office is responsible for Auglaize, Hardin, Logan, Mercer and Shelby counties. Hancock County is the responsibility of the Cleveland office.
Missed tornadoes and the ice storm of 2005 prompted Anderson and others to build an active spotting program in Auglaize County. The Aug. 28, 2006, tornado, an EF-0 that caused minor damage, hit the southern part of New Knoxville and was part of the impetus. A tornado warning had been issued earlier that night for a storm in Mercer County. No such warning was ever issued for Auglaize County, according to published reports at the time.
“We’re doing the storm spotting, the storm reporting. We’re the eyes for Wilmington,” Anderson said. “If we’re the farthest away, their radar is not seeing where we’re at. Some of the storms are sliding through. On the radar if the storm top isn’t high enough and severe enough, it’s going to look mild on radar to them. Here, it’s not mild.”
Mary Jo Parker, warning coordination meteorologist for the weather service office in Wilmington, acknowledged that there are limitations with the radar technology.
“Storm spotters, emergency management are important no matter where we’re talking about in our coverage area,” Parker said. “A lot of times the tornadoes that we’re dealing with, very weak tornadoes, may or may not be detected on radar depending on where they occur, even if they occur fairly close to a radar site. It’s really important to have that network of spotters out there, be in close contact with emergency management.”
An unusual season
It has been an overly active severe weather season by all accounts. There’s been a nearly three-fold increase in the number of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service office in North Webster, Ind., across its 37 counties in Indiana, Ohio and Michigan, Lewis said.
“If you go back to our fall season, it was also very active,” Lewis said. “From September through June, the bottom line is it’s been a very active year.”
Lewis said exact numbers aren’t readily available for the number of warnings. While those specifics haven’t yet been charted, he said in terms of the number of people affected by warnings and the size of the areas impacted, it has been larger this year, he said.
Parker said there’s no question there have been more severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings issued across the 52 counties of Ohio, Indiana and Kentucky served by her office since the first of the year.
“Over that time period, we issued a total of 1,198 warnings,” Parker said. “That doesn’t mean we had severe weather for each warning. Sometimes we’ll issue a warning and we don’t get anything. Compared to last year for the same time period, we issued 398 severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. It was quite an active springtime and we’re not out of the woods yet.”
Nationally, statistics show a similar pattern.
A report from the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., shows so far there have been nearly 1,500 reports of tornadoes — up from the three-year average of 1,376. There have also been more than 500 tornado deaths, significantly higher than the three-year average of 64. There were more than 800 tornado reports and more than 360 tornado deaths reported in April alone, according to the report.
Mike Bettes, an on-air meteorologist for The Weather Channel, said conditions have been ripe for explosive weather.
“Atmospherically there have been times when a strong jet stream combined with just a lot of Gulf of Mexico moisture have combined at the right time, right place or the wrong time, wrong place to create these huge events,” Bettes said. “Conditions have been ripe multiple times this year for violent tornadoes to form. Unfortunately very violent tornadoes have formed.”
The national average for the occurrence of the most violent tornadoes, EF-5, is one every two years, Bettes said. This year alone there have been five, including Joplin.
‘It changes you’
Experiencing a life-altering tornado like Joplin firsthand has impacts, even for veteran weather professionals, Bettes said.
Bettes was in the Midwest chasing tornadoes as part of The Weather Channel’s monthlong “Tornado Hunt” from May 9 through June 3.
“We go out in search of the storms and I think in the back of our minds we always know what the result of something big could be, but in most instances we don’t think about it,” Bettes said. “We think about a big, beautiful, majestic tornado in the wide open countryside. I think this year that changed for us in particular when we ended up in Joplin literally minutes after the tornado touched down.”
Bettes said they ended up seeing exactly what an EF-5 tornado’s aftermath is when it strikes a populated town.
“That was a storm that we actually targeted that day. We were chasing it, we intercepted it just outside Joplin but at the time it didn’t have a tornado,” Bettes said. “As it moved past us, we followed in behind it and ended up getting stuck in some heavy rain and some hail and that ended up slowing us down because the visibility was so bad we couldn’t even do the speed limit.
“If it hadn’t been for that our whole crew would have likely been right in Joplin when the tornado hit. I think the rain and the hail actually probably saved our lives.”
The crew witnessed many things with the raw emotion, the shock and the scenes of utter devastation when they pulled into town, Bettes said.
“I think it changes you. It changed me,” Bettes said. “Often times in the job we do, we usually end up at a tornado site after the fact, a day later. The freshness of it is gone, you still see damage but you don’t feel that emotion that you feel when it happens right in front of you. You see the terror on people’s faces, the shock and the injuries and the fatalities and it’s all very fresh for you.”
The experience has given him a new outlook on how to approach passing along warnings to viewers, Bettes said.
“For me personally at least, what I took away from that was there are so many times when we can become very disingenuous when we talk about tornado warnings because we talk about them so frequently,” Bettes said. “There is a direct result of having people take action because of the words that you speak. For me, I think I take them more seriously now even, there’s more urgency in how I talk about tornadoes now than I ever used to have.
“I think that’s for me a direct result of having witnessed what I witnessed in Joplin.”
Overcoming the limitations
Despite the vulnerabilities, officials said there is constant work to improve collaboration between agencies as well as the utilization of new technology to improve the system.
“Technology provides limitations no matter what you do. The advantage is we’re trained and we receive training on radar interpretation nearly continuously,” Lewis said. “The focus has always been how can we make better sense of the radar and how can we use it to our advantage. Regardless of where the storms are, we understand what we can reasonably expect down to the ground. This is why we need spotters. There’s a constant need for steady, reliable information.”
Decker said there are constant discussions between the weather service offices, first-responders and emergency management officials working to improve the warning system.
“Every day we are doing things to make the system better,” Decker said. “There are a lot of things we’re working on to get better in the future. We’ve added Facebook and Twitter. We’re trying to reach out on the social media level.”
Other improvements down the line include technology that will be able to send warning information to people under a warning through their satellite radio and wireless phone technology regardless of where they are at, Decker said. That technology is less than five years away, he said.
It’s all aimed at improving warning notification and is part of the process and debate about how much lead time is just right, Lewis said. Conventional wisdom has held that the more lead time people have before a storm, the better. That’s not necessarily true, Lewis said.
“The big question is how much is too much time. There is a point where if I gave you five days warning a lot of life occurs in five days,” Lewis said, noting too much warning time may give people a false sense of safety. “Will you remember in five days that we told you five days ago? Time is of the essence. The question is how much time is too much time.”
Published in The Lima News: June 19, 2011